South Africa (ranked 2 in the world) 18 Scotland (ranked 5) 3
Ireland (ranked 1) 13- 8 Sourh Africa 8
So Ireland win tonight and South Africa get a bonus point for losing within 7 points - just great not!
So now all Scotland need is bonus point wins vs Tonga and Romania. And then finally beat Ireland, probably with us needing a bonus point (4 tries) and them not getting a bonus point (lose within 7 points).
Simples, and all to try and get into a QF vs France (ranked 3) or New Zealand (ranked 4)
I do hope England didn't take too much out of themselves in their win vs Chile.
Yes, they did do the seedings 3 years ago, based on the world rankings then!
Australia, Wales, Fiji, plus Georgia and Portugal, may well end up the closest group and entertaining in its way, especially if Australia beat Wales later today. But by a distance the strongest group with 2 to qualify for the QF ) is Ireland, South Africa, Scotland, plus Tonga and Romania. And probably the Group of Death - for Scotland.
Re the thrashings, they want to spread the game and encourage the lesser nations. But there certainly aren't 20 good enough teams to support 4 groups of 5 without thrashings. I think that they could do with a further pre finals qualifying stage to at least get it down to 16 and 4 groups of 4. Though even then there would be some big scores from say ranks 1 to 4 over ranks 13 to 16. But iI think it would be better.
And as I was saying, another big problem.here was seeding it so far in advance, opening themselves up to the draw then spreading the 5 top ranked nations over just 2 groups and then only at most 2 of these 5 able to reach the SF. The QFs are quite likely going to be more competitive than the SFs.
-- Edited by indiana on Sunday 24th of September 2023 07:35:43 AM
i.e. based on seeding, Roumania, say, start 15-0 up against England?
Probably not but then, yes, further pre-qualis would be good - but it is possible to be during the World Cup, not earlier on. So that it would be actually playing at the World Cup.
Honestly, I dabble in rugby (spectating!) so I've no idea - and I completely bow to your pool analysis - and am sorry if Scotland got the really short straw
I'll be watching Australia v Wales later today though
And France v New Zealand - in a small village with a big screen in the central square, and everyone from grandad to babies out to support, with wine/beer a-flowing - was a wonderful evening
i.e. based on seeding, Roumania, say, start 15-0 up against England?
Probably not but then, yes, further pre-qualis would be good - but it is possible to be during the World Cup, not earlier on. So that it would be actually playing at the World Cup.
Honestly, I dabble in rugby (spectating!) so I've no idea - and I completely bow to your pool analysis - and am sorry if Scotland got the really short straw
I'll be watching Australia v Wales later today though
And France v New Zealand - in a small village with a big screen in the central square, and everyone from grandad to babies out to support, with wine/beer a-flowing - was a wonderful evening
Handicap system? - may I say what a gawd awful idea for any pretence at respectability for the tournament. Sorry.
But you have saved yourself a bit with the thought of any further qualifying stage being at the actual World Cup Finals ( they actually do have earlier qualifiers which weed out even weaker minnows ) ie. basically have the weaker initial qualifying nations there but competing with each other for the right to then play against the stronger nations who would enter the finals tournament later. Good one
The rugby union World Cup suffers this way in the same way other world cups struggle- rugby league is more so and netball, as an example, is more so. In those you also have a tier of clearly dominant top nations (3 in rugby league, 4 or maybe 5 in netball) who will never lose to the lower nations taking part, and any pretence otherwise is futile!
In union, the big 8 of the 3 southern giants and the 4 home nations and France dominate every time with the occasional interloper in to the last 8, Japan once, Argentina now and then, Samoa (whether it is the west or the whole!) . 20 is too many teams and a prelim stage is difficult to make work in a tournament situation. Ideally it would be 16 teams in total but it has been 20 for several world cups now and I suspect the IRB would not turn back on that in terms of developing the game worldwide or admitting it hasnt really developed world wide !
The draw taking place so far in advance is silly - they will argue it is for tv and ticketing purposes but football manages with six months before for a 32 team event. England have gained from that, as have others, and it is a shame Ireland and South Africa (and Scotland) clash with France and New Zealand so early ! Well sort of a shame. Come on England !
i.e. based on seeding, Roumania, say, start 15-0 up against England?
Probably not but then, yes, further pre-qualis would be good - but it is possible to be during the World Cup, not earlier on. So that it would be actually playing at the World Cup.
Honestly, I dabble in rugby (spectating!) so I've no idea - and I completely bow to your pool analysis - and am sorry if Scotland got the really short straw
I'll be watching Australia v Wales later today though
And France v New Zealand - in a small village with a big screen in the central square, and everyone from grandad to babies out to support, with wine/beer a-flowing - was a wonderful evening
Handicap system? - may I say what a gawd awful idea for any pretence at respectability for the tournament. Sorry.
But you have saved yourself a bit with the thought of any further qualifying stage being at the actual World Cup Finals ( they actually do have earlier qualifiers which weed out even weaker minnows ) ie. basically have the weaker initial qualifying nations there but competing with each other for the right to then play against the stronger nations who would enter the finals tournament later. Good one
France v South Africa
England v Fiji (99 percent certain)
Got to say its 2 from the 4 that clash in the last 8 and hard to see the winner outside of those 4. Although impossible to say which 2 will win those clashes and go on to the title - Ireland and France ?
Could indeed be an all 6 nations SF. Though I have a sneaky feeling that Sourh Africa will beat France, leadng on to an Ireland vs South Africa final
Well, Scotland didn't bow out from the Group of Death in glorious failure as I suspected was most like to happen. It was all rather inglorious. Yes, Ireland and South Africa are my two predicted finalists but Scotland barely laid a glove on either. Very disappointing.
It was on the bubble for a while with Fiji clinging on to a required bonus point at 10--17 down. Got 23-17 ahead late on before with a minute to go Portugal scored a converted try to win 24-23.
Still at 80 minutes up, Fiji kicked it out as seen as possible and took their losing bonus point. They finish level on points with Australia but go through on head to head.
Well done Portugal and ruddy good effort by Fiji to nearly totally muck it up.